TL;DR
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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, following two months of softening. Its Expectations Index declined for a third straight month to 63.6, while consumers’ inflation expectations and expectations for higher interest rates rose.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, as consumers grew less positive about current business and labor conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The Expectations Index dropped for a third consecutive month, while consumers’ reported inflation expectations and expectations for higher interest rates increased.
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3. This measure reflects consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions. Net views of current business conditions, calculated as the share saying conditions were good minus the share saying they were bad, fell 3.4 percentage points to minus 1.9%. The report said more consumers describing business conditions as bad drove much of that decline. It marked the first time since September 2024 that consumers’ net appraisals of current business conditions turned negative.
Views of the labor market also weakened, though the measure remained in positive territory. The employment differential—the share saying jobs were plentiful minus the share saying jobs were hard to get—declined 2.5 percentage points to plus 1.7%. In the expectations measure, net views of business conditions fell 3.2 points to minus 9.5%, while net expectations for the labor market dropped 3.1 points to minus 14.4%. Net expectations for household income fell 3.0 points to plus 2.5%, meaning they remained positive even after the decline.
The survey also recorded higher consumer expectations for price increases and interest rates. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median rose by the same amount to 5.1%. The share expecting interest rates to be higher over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 points to 68.4%. Consumers remained broadly inclined to expect stock prices to rise, but their optimism about stocks moderated, according to the report.
Weaker Outlook Meets Higher Cost Expectations
The September decline points to a broadening loss of confidence across consumers’ views of both present conditions and the months ahead. The Expectations Index’s third consecutive monthly fall is one signal that consumers have become more pessimistic about business and employment prospects. The index’s level, 63.6, gives a snapshot of those short-term views; the report does not establish that consumers’ expectations will translate directly into future economic outcomes.
For households, the combination of weaker confidence and rising inflation expectations may matter to decisions about spending, saving and borrowing. The higher share anticipating rate increases also suggests consumers are preparing for borrowing costs to rise. These survey responses describe expectations, not actual future prices or interest rates. The report does not measure how individual households will change their spending in response.
Businesses that depend on consumer demand may watch the next readings for evidence of whether September’s weakening continues. The reported movement spans assessments of business conditions, job availability, income and prices, offering more detail than the headline index alone. At the same time, the figures are survey results covering a specific period; they are not a record of retail sales or other completed transactions.
Three Months of Falling Expectations
The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index to track household views of the economy. Its Present Situation Index covers current assessments of business and labor conditions. The Expectations Index covers consumers’ outlook for income, business and labor conditions over the short term. The two measures provide separate views, so a decline in one does not mean every component moved by the same amount.
In September, both indices declined from August: the Present Situation Index fell from 117.2 to 109.3, and the Expectations Index fell from 69.5 to 63.6. The headline index moved from 88.6 to 81.9. The Conference Board’s Dana M. Peterson said the headline measure had deteriorated after two prior months of softening. The expectations measure’s September decline extended that run to three months.
The survey’s preliminary results cover responses collected from September 1 through September 23. Hardware Retailing reported that the period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Those events provide timing context, but the supplied report does not establish how much either event caused the change in confidence.
Results also varied by demographic group over a longer measure. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence trended downward across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income groups generally remained more optimistic, while respondents in households earning $125,000 to $149,000 recorded the greatest confidence decline over that six-month period. That comparison concerns a moving average, not only September’s month-to-month change.
Causes and Follow-Through Remain Open
The survey reports consumer responses during a defined period, but it does not identify how much the rate hike, geopolitical tensions, or other factors contributed to the decline. The September results are described as preliminary; the supplied report does not specify whether or when they may be revised. It also does not provide the underlying response counts or a margin of error here, so the precision of small component changes cannot be assessed from this material alone.
It is also unclear whether September’s weaker confidence will persist or affect household spending. The figures track sentiment and expectations, rather than purchases, employment or inflation as later recorded in economic data. The reported rise in expected inflation should not be read as a forecast of the actual inflation rate. Likewise, the increase in consumers expecting higher interest rates does not establish what policymakers will decide.
Watch the Next Confidence Reading
The next Consumer Confidence Index release will show whether the September decline continued, stabilized or reversed. Readers should compare the next headline figure with the September level of 81.9, while checking both sub-indexes and their components to see whether changes are concentrated in current conditions or expectations. The report supplied for this article does not give a date for the next release.
Later data on spending, prices, employment and interest rates will help show whether the survey’s concerns correspond with changes in economic conditions. Until then, September’s findings provide a snapshot of consumer views gathered from September 1 to 23. The survey alone cannot settle what caused the decline or predict what households and businesses will do next.
Key Questions
How far did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September.
What happened to consumers’ expectations?
The Expectations Index declined 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decrease. Net expectations for business and labor conditions weakened, while net expectations for household income remained positive at 2.5%.
Did consumers expect inflation and interest rates to rise?
Yes. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, and the median rose to 5.1%. The share expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months rose 5.2 points to 68.4%. These are survey expectations, not confirmed future outcomes.
When were the September survey responses collected?
The preliminary results were based on responses collected from September 1 through September 23, 2026.
Source: rss
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